IVTHOUGHTS
Believe it or not
the regular season is now ¼ of the way through. What’s up with
that? There is getting to be a chill in the air, and I hope my corn finishes
before the frost comes…
After 2 weeks of
Section IV action, I’ll give you my IVTHOUGHTS….
AA – oh dear.
Last week I was taking my daily stress reducing walk around the campus at work,
and I remember thinking to myself “I think this season AA might actually
be for real!” UE had surpassed my expectations in beating Buffalo
Catholic school St. Francis. Binghamton had just run
up over 500 yards of offense against a Newburgh team that was well over twice
their enrollment. The combination of Cornings East
and West, both previously very strong class A
programs, made for a VERY tough team on paper. And Ithaca, under former Lansing
coach Ed Redmond, scored a week 1 blowout win. So, with all that, I was pretty
optimistic about AA. Well, Ithaca and Corning have not yet tripped up, but UE
and Bingo sure put a kabash on all my expectations.
UE got shredded (I’m thinking it was like 46-0 at the half) by Section IX’s
Monroe-Woodbury, and Binghamton stumbled to a 1 TD loss to class A Vestal. I’m
hoping differently, but I’m thinking that IV AA state competiveness is
still nowhere in sight. Oh well. I’m really not sure where this class
will end up when all is said and done. A couple weeks ago I picked Corning over
Binghamton for the final, and at this point I think that is still probably as
sensible as anything else. I like Ithaca’s rise, but I really think the
athletes on the glassers and Bingo will make these 2 stand out in the end.
A – Vestal and
Maine-Endwell are the cream here. Not an earthshattering conclusion considering
the 2 others in the class have been blown out by a
combined 188-56. Both have surpassed my expectations so far, but that’s
not saying a whole lot. ME has shown they can rack up
points very quickly, and Vestal’s win over Binghamton’s powerful
offense shows there must be some defensive capabilities there. 2 weeks ago I
picked ME over Southside, right now I’m at a loss to say whether it’s
Vestal or ME as champ. I think the winner may be competitive with Section III,
but, if they make it, I see them getting toasted in the state semi’s,
probably by either Sweet Home (Section VI) or Aquinas (Section V). Vestal is my
current pick I guess.
B – I had
previously picked Johnson City over Oneonta. Oneonta had a poor showing against
a pretty good Sidney team last week, losing 38-20. In some years I could see
them coming back from this and challenging, but I don’t see it this year.
I think they have a reasonable shot at the playoffs (though if I picked now I’d
pick Norwich and Chenango Valley to be the Division III reps), but I don’t
see them making the final. Chenango Valley impressed me by beating Johnson City
last week, but it was admittedly made possible by a botched snap on a
kneel-down in the last minute. I think my prediction today would be Chenango
Valley/Norwich in D III, and Johnson City/Owego in D IV. I think it’s Owego/Johnson City in the final, with JC pulling
it out. I think they could be respectable in the state playoffs, but I don’t
see anything too big.
C – wow, tough pick here. I think I’ll go with……[drumroll]…..the Forks. They did lose a FB/LB
to injury, which sounds like it may hurt (and given there was ligament damage,
there’s a good chance he may not return). Still, they are too deep and
too good at winning games. Sidney is getting better, and if their offense gets
some rhythm, they could be a spoiler for Forks by the end of the year if they
get a 2nd crack at them. Right now nobody out west looks like
anything to worry about, but that could always change. I still think Whitney
Point will bounce back from their 0-2 start to win that division, with maybe
T-burg in 2nd. I think they both get blown out in the playoffs by
Forks and Sidney though. Right now I’ll predict Forks over Sidney by 4 TD’s
in round 1 and 10 points in round 2. I think Forks should have a great shot at
good success in states, especially if the FB can make a return.
D – Bulldogs by
50 in the final over whomever! Haha. There are quite a few teams around that can beat quite a
few of the top teams I think. Just out in the west I think there are 4 teams
(Candor, Tioga, Moravia, Groton) who are very capable
playoff-caliber teams. I can make a guess at who it will be, but there are a
lot of ways I could see this playing out. Right now I might guess Tioga #1 and
Candor #2. But, there are several 3- and even 4-way tie situations possible. I
think any of those teams are a definite threat to anyone in our division as
well. We beat Tioga by 17 last year, but we actually did have fewer yards than
they did, and they returned a very large chunk of the team. On our side, BG,
Walton, and Delhi have the appearances of the top teams, but I don’t
doubt that any of them could be beaten by just about anyone else in the
division. Even if that spoiler didn’t make the playoffs, it could really
throw a monkeywrench into the balance of power.
I probably just
gave Oxford bulletin board material by not including them in the top list, who
knows. I do think they are dangerous to all teams, including our ‘Dogs
tomorrow night. I also think that running that gauntlet will be tough for them.
As for tomorrow, I
really didn’t get a strong look at Oxford at the scrimmage or at any
games, so I’m not sure what to expect. I do know that we’ve
struggled mightily against them lately. Last year we played them a week after
we beat Deposit 27-0. Deposit had beaten Oxford 55-24, so it wasn’t
expected to be a big deal. We had to work like crazy to fight them off,
including 2 Oxford drives that ended on Delhi’s 5 yard line late in the
game. Delhi came out with a narrow 7-6 win. We also played them in ’07,
and after going behind by 2 TD’s, we came back to take a lead, only to
lose it on an Oxford drive in the last minute, and we lost the game 21-16. So,
bottom line, they know how to beat us, whether it’s in a situation where
we look measurably better or whether it’s in a situation where we think
we have the game wrapped up. I hope we have our minds completely on this week
and not on next week’s showdown with Sidney. This is a division game, and
any slip-up in this division could prove VERY costly. Let’s hope the first
downs and TD’s continue to flow as they have been, and let’s hope
we can crank it up a bit on defense.
Everyone I know of
had a horrendous week on picks last week, and I was actually one of the better
prognosticators at 15-7 (0.682), making for a running total of 30-15 (0.667).
Last season’s stellar year looks so far behind in the rear view mirror
now. I’m guessing about a 0.700 week this week, with…MW over
Binghamton, Newburgh over UE, Vestal over Norwich, Groton over Odessa, UVE over
SVE in the battle of the VE’s, Corning over Ithaca (very intriguing game
for sure), Tioga over Edison, Dryden over Lansing, Owego over Trumansburg,
Seton over Watkins Glen, Johnson City over Oneonta, Waverly over Newark Valley,
Moravia over Candor (Candor letdown after big win over Groton), Horseheads over
EFA, Sidney over Whitney Point (I guess Point’s comeback will have to
start next week), ME over Southside, BG over Harpursville, Forks over Valley in
the battle of all things Chenango, Walton over Hanposit
(or is it Depocock?), END over Newfield, Sus Valley over Unatego, Greene
over Windsor. See you Friday…