IVKnowledge

With the playoffs beginning in class D and the rest of the section on their final regular season week, I’ll give some thoughts on where I think everyone is, as well as the playoff picture around the section.

In class AA, I had originally picked Corning over Binghamton in the final. You could say it still doesn’t look like a terrible pick, but considering there are 4 total teams in AA, it wasn’t that tough of a pick either. Right now Binghamton is actually the front-runner, following a commanding 47-26 win over Corning in week 4. Bingo has 2 losses on the season, a 21-0 setback to Newburgh, and a narrow 14-13 loss to perennial power Monroe-Woodbury. Most of the wins have been reasonably impressive, outside of an 18-6 win over a subpar Vestal team. Corning has the loss to Binghamton plus a loss to Aquinas, last years state champ in class A and a real powerhouse. They also lost to Maine-Endwell, who is looking downright terrific in class A this year, despite being 1 kid over class B enrollment. So, both teams have had sharp moments as well as not-so-sharp, and I see this going into the playoffs, meaning whoever is hot that particular evening will likely take the title. I think the same goes for states – if someone gets hot, they could have a shot at winning a game or 2, or I could see yet another complete IV AA fizzle (or maybe a IVFizzle?). I do think Binghamton would probably have the best shot in states, given their better offensive balance, compared to the run-oriented Corning Hawks.

Class A is another 2-horse race. Maine-Endwell and Union-Endicott have mostly been steam-rolling through their schedules, with the only loss for either being the ME 26-20 victory over UE in week 5. ME impressed with the Corning win and a 34-0 win over Elmira, both teams well over 2 times ME’s enrollment. UE also had 2 convincing wins over AA teams, and the 2 appear destined for another playoff showdown. The primary hurdle in all that is Vestal. While Vestal is not terribly great this year at 2-5, they are the Shelbyville to UE’s Springfield (any Simpson’s fans?), and the games are most usually very competitive. UE will have the distinction of playing them 2 weeks in a row – this weekend will be the regular season matchup, and the winner will host the playoff game the following week. So, while I think UE will be in the final, I’ve seen things that would surprise me more than having Vestal pull the upset in week 9. As for the final, assuming it’s you and me (or rather UE and ME), I really would be hard pressed to pick a favorite. This is a great thing for high school football – 2 neighboring districts looking very strong and fighting for a title (sound familiar at all?), and I’m excited to see how it plays out. I had originally picked UE over ME, so my pick there is looking ok….The winner should be fairly competitive in states I think, though you never know what you’ll get. I don’t see anyone beating Aquinas if we manage to get by section III.

In B, I had picked Owego and Chenango Valley as division champs, with Owego over Johnson City in the final. It’s not completely out of the picture that it could play out this way (for the final, division champs will be different), though there are a whole bunch of other scenarios as well. In division IV, Johnson City actually has the title wrapped up, and in all likelihood it will be Owego with the 2^nd seed, assuming they can beat a 2-5 Dryden team this weekend. Despite just 2 wins, Owego is actually reasonably strong, with losses to UE (1 loss), Johnson City, and Greene (both undefeated). For the other side of the classification, this weekend will determine the picture, as division leader Norwich matches up against a good Chenango Valley team. If Norwich wins and Oneonta beats Norwich, it will be Norwich and Oneonta as #1 and #2. If Chenango Valley wins and Oneonta wins, it appears that Oneonta would be out based on the tie-breaker system, and Chenango Valley and Norwich would be #1 and #2. If Norwich wins and Oneonta loses, Windsor, Chenango Valley, and Oneonta would all be tied, and, while I’m not positive, I believe that tie-breaker would go to Chenango Valley. So, bottom line, there’s much yet to be determined in division III. My feel is that it will be Norwich and Oneonta. So that would match Norwich up with Owego, and JC up with Oneonta. I think the former could go either way, with JC taking Oneonta handily. The final will certainly be a good game. JC looked like they’d be dominant following a 73-14 thrashing of what is turning out to be a pretty decent Sidney team in week 1, but have looked much more down to earth since then. They do have an intriguing game with ME schedule for this weekend. I’m thinking it’s ME by 3 TD in what could have been the class B title game if ME had had one less enrollee. JC will probably take the final by a TD, and may be competitive in states, though not likely overwhelming.

In class C my prediction was Forks over Greene. Much to the surprise of many, this will be the 1^st year since 2000 that Forks hasn’t made the playoffs, with division losses to Greene and Unatego (yes, the same ‘Tego we had a lead on in the 4^th quarter) to go with a loss to Norwich. Greene plays Sidney this weekend for the division title. A Greene win would cap an undefeated regular season and give them the title outright. Sidney would still be in the playoffs – if Forks wins it will be a 3-way tie for 2^nd, with Sidney winning the points game. If Forks loses, it’s a 2-way tie with Unatego, and Sidney beat Unatego 20-0 in week 5. Division VI appears to be Waverly in 1^st and Newark Valley in 2^nd, though this weekend’s games could change things a bit. As those scenarios are pretty complicated, I’ll just assume it’s Waverly and Newark Valley. Waverly looked unstoppable early in the season, with a passing game that was downright terrific. I believe I recall the QB passing for 6 TD’s in one game. It came to a screeching halt, however, in a week 6 28-7 setback to Chenango Valley. They did bounce back the following week with a 35-6 win over a pretty good Newark Valley team. Waverly’s fortunes will probably rely on the weather and just how they match up with the particular teams – their passing game is terrific, but anyone able to take that away will stop them cold. Greene has been very impressive thus far, going undefeated and scoring solid wins over class B Owego and Oneonta. If Greene is the top seed, I’d pick them as a 2 TD favorite over Newark Valley, with Waverly a 1 TD favorite over Sidney (Sidney understands a passing offense). I’ll withhold judgment on a Waverly/Greene final, and many have been hoping for that one for a few weeks now. I do believe Greene gives section IV a slightly better shot in states, but against the right teams Waverly could actually light it up. Who knows what they’ll face in November, but I do know the weather could be uncooperative.

Well, I had originally picked Los Angeles over San Diego for class D, but I guess I wasn’t even thinking that both the Dodgers and the Padres are in the NL and thus can’t meet in the World Series. Haha, I guess since we won’t be making a playoff run I can safely make some predictions for class D. For this weekend’s playoffs, it will be Deposit/Hancock at Tioga, Union Springs at Walton, Seton at BG, and Groton at Notre Dame. I’m thinking DH will make it a reasonable game considering it’s a 1 vs. 8, but Tioga wins by 2 TD’s. Walton by 3-4 TD’s, BG by 2 TD’s, and Groton/Notre Dame is a pick’m. Walton takes the semi by 2 TD’s, and Tioga wins by 3 TD’s. Tioga looks pretty tough, having put 60 on the lights twice, as well as winning over Newark Valley. We’ll see how strong their schedule was I suppose, especially with the DH matchup this weekend. Walton, ranked 1^st in the state, is dangerous with their usual strong offensive line and their stable of good backs. Shiels gives them some speed they haven’t seen since Logan Wood in 2007, and Kaminsky’s improved passing accuracy certainly adds some new depth to the gameplan. I’m not yet convinced they are state champ material, but it also wouldn’t terribly surprise me either. I think their schedule has been pretty tough (would have loved to have seen them in the game against Sidney that got cancelled), and they’ve run through it pretty well. I think the final is Walton by 2 TD’s over Tioga, and Walton gives section IV the best shot we have at a state title I think.

As for that, in order of probability of a state title, I’d go with D, C, B, A, AA. Overall I think we’re better in A than in B, but I think whoever will have a tough time getting by Aquinas.

As for our ‘Dogs, let’s hope for some W’s these last 2 weeks. I do think Spencer is a good bit better than Odessa, though I could be wrong. So, our tougher game should be this weekend. I just hope we don’t lose any more kids!

For picks, I didn’t get to publishing them, but I did actually make some last week. You’ll just have to trust me…..I went an icky 14-6 (0.700). Not a good season, with a total of 80-27 (0.748). For week 8, I’m picking…..Unatego over Sus Valley, Trumansburg over Whitney Point, UE over Vestal, Candor over Harpursville, Binghamton over Ithaca, Oneonta over Windsor, Owego over Dryden, Corning over Elmira, Greene over Sidney (though Unatego did take Greene to OT, and Sidney beat ‘Tego handily), Forks over UVE, Newark Valley over Watkins Glen, Maine-Endwell over Johnson City, Edison over Moravia, Norwich over Chenango Valley, Waverly over Lansing…..for playoffs, I’ll give them again, Tioga over DH, Walton over Union Springs, BG over Seton, and I guess I’ll pick Notre Dame over Groton.