Nose Blows and the Playoffs

UGG, I’ve had a nasty cold that has put me down on my can. It’s HORRIBLE. It might not be so bad if I could sit and relax for an extended time. Oh well. Given the lightness of my head, I’m going to plagiarize IVFAN this week in what I write. This week I talk about the different playoff scenarios that we are facing. To tell you the truth, I’m tempted not to, but to just say we need to drastically improve over what we did last Saturday. The playoffs look quite certain, as you’ll see below, but one and done is very little fun. Anyway, here is how it stacks up…..

1. No matter what happens this weekend, next weekend's Delhi/BG game is for the division title. The winner will have either 1 or 0 divisional losses, and everyone else has at least 2, so the winner will be the champ.

2. At least one win over the next 2 weeks clinches a playoff spot for Delhi, and the same for BG.

3. If Delhi loses both weeks, there are several situations that could arise. The 2 most likely in my mind are:

a. Deposit beats Hancock, and Oxford wins out, resulting in 3-way tie for 2nd with Delhi, Deposit, and Oxford. Delhi has beaten both teams, so Delhi would be the winner. If I’m wrong and the head to head doesn’t matter, then Delhi would still win in based on wins over 2 class C teams, one of them a probable 6 game winner (Walton).

b. Deposit beating Hancock, and Seton wins out, so it's a tie between Deposit, Seton, and Delhi. In such a case, Delhi is the likely winner, but not for certain, based on the following:

Non-common games:

Deposit – win over Onteora (assumed), loss to Sully West, win over Seton, loss to Delhi

Seton – win over Sus Valley, win over END, loss to Deposit, win over Delhi

Delhi – win over Liberty, win over Walton, win over Deposit, loss to Seton

1st level – division games are equal; for non-division, Delhi/Seton tied, and hold significant advantage over Deposit

2nd level:

Deposit – Seton would be a 6 win team

Delhi – Walton will likely be a 6 win team; Deposit would be a 4 or 5 win team, Liberty has a chance to be a 4 win team, but may not

Seton – Delhi would be a 6 win team; END has a chance to be a 4 win team

So, if END wins out, and if Liberty loses either of its coming games, Delhi and Seton would be tied for 1st and 2nd level points. I would think the tie breaker at that point would be head to head, which Seton would win in this scenario. The biggest obstacle in this is that END plays Waverly this weekend, which is not likely a win for them.

If Seton wins out, Hancock beats Deposit, and Delhi loses both games, Seton would be 2nd based on head to head with Delhi.

Clear as mud?

Bottom line, it's probably a 90% chance that it is BG and Delhi in the playoffs, and it's Oxford who probably has the most say in upsetting that cart.

As for the scenarios for other teams if Delhi is the champ, I won’t go into them, you’ll just have to go figure those out!

In terms of seed, I’m really not concerned with whether we play Tioga or Groton, as I think both are very good. So that isn’t a concern, but I just want to get back into an offensive flow…

I continue to steam like a Delaware County cowpie in the October snow on my picks, going 20-2 last week (0.909), and I didn’t even count the Eldred forfeit win over Hancock (they certainly would have beaten Hancock, but I wouldn’t have counted it had I picked the forfeiting team to win). For the year, the rise continues to 116-25 (0.823). For a cold and blustery week 7, I am thinking……Bingo over Corning West (but the weather really makes me question this pick, but West did lose to UE), Chenango Valley over Oneonta, Tioga over Odessa, Waverly over END, Norwich over Sidney, Whitney Point over Unatego, Lansing over Watkins Glen, Groton over SVE, Deposit over Hancock, BG over Oxford (SOOOO tempting to pick the upset), Dryden over Owego, Forks over Greene, Harpursville over Livingston Manor, Southern Springs over Trumansburg, Walton over UVE, Moravia over Edison, Newark Valley over Sus Valley, Southside over Horseheads, Candor over Newfield, Maine-Endwell over Windsor, Johnson City over Corning East (finally I escape and pick an upset), EFA over Vestal, and UE over Ithaca. I always say this, but this could be the week I go into the toilet! I think I did go with pretty safe picks though.

Have a fun sleigh ride to Alumni Stadium tomorrow!