Thoroughly Confused

October 12, 2007

It’s funny how things never seem to go the way that I think they are going to, and whenever I feel I have a grasp on it all, it all changes. I remember over winter thinking that we’d be a pretty good running team with Bedient and Ryan Weale. One way or another, I thought we’d be quite good on offense and quite questionable on defense. Then I found out Weale was gone, and I got an inside tip that we were going to pass the ball more. Then I went to the scrimmage, saw us pass maybe 2 times, but saw Davionne light up Vestal for mouthfuls of yards, so we’re a Davionne-oriented run team. Then we play Liberty, and Bedient gets most of the running work, while the air show starts. Now, as the season has progressed, it seems like the offense is faltering, and the defense is doing reasonably well, albeit with a troubling lack of consistency. I don’t know what to think any more.

Perhaps if I say something, then I’ll be wrong, and I can use that to our advantage. Where is our most striking need to improve? Blocking! We’ve been doing little of it lately. In the first few weeks, it seemed like we blocked sporadically in the first half, but then did pretty well in the second half. We eventually got some good seams to run through. I was very discouraged last Friday night, because those seams never came. 39 total yards rushing. Had we not gotten some pretty good runs on draw plays, that number would have been far worse. We had a very good shot at winning the game because we came through with 113 passing yards, but that had its downside as well, with many QB sacks. I am not going to say exactly what it is we need to do or who needs to do it. I will say that if the blocking does not improve markedly very soon, we will suffer another losing season. But the season isn’t done yet…..there’s still time to make this right….

Let’s take a quick look at the picture around the section….

For AA, UE is obviously in the driver’s seat. They are 3-0 in division and look to have one of the strongest teams in a while, with a standout sophomore TB and a great D-line. They will play Vestal next week. A win clinches sole possession of the division title, a loss would mean a tie with Vestal and possibly Horseheads. UE looks like they have potential to do better in states (only 1 section IV AA team has made it past the first round since 1996). With a #5 state ranking, you’d think there is state potential, but I’m still wary. Let’s see how they do tomorrow night against #1 A Aquinas of Rochester. The AA playoff teams are already in stone with UE, Horseheads, Vestal, and Binghamton.

In A, EFA looks like the team to beat with wins over Cornings East and West. They play Maine-Endwell this weekend, and ME could pose a threat. EFA and Corning East will be in the playoffs, with ME, Johnson City, and Corning West duking it out for the final 2 spots. The winner should be reasonably competitive state-wide, but section V’s Aquinas will be a big barrier in the 2^nd round of states if our team makes it past section III.

Class B looks very competitive, with Forks looking like the frontrunner. They beat a very good Chenango Valley team recently, and will play a very tough game against Windsor this weekend. If Forks wins, it will be Forks and Valley in the playoffs. A Windsor win means a 3-way tie. Forks would most certainly be in, and it is pretty close between Valley and Windsor for the 2^nd spot, with a slight edge to Windsor. In the other B division, Waverly is out in front and looks very strong. There are still a few games to be played in division yet, but the smart money is on Waverly as #1 and probably Owego as #2. I had high hopes for Forks’ state potential after beating Corning East, but East hasn’t looked as strong lately. Forks certainly knows how to win at that level though.

In class C, Unatego is out front, but faces a tough test again tonight with Trumansburg. T-burg is 4-2, but the 2 defeats were actually won big on the field, but were forfeited due to an ineligible player. T-burg recently beat a tough Greene team. Unatego will be in the playoffs. In all likelihood Lansing and T-burg will as well. Probably the winner of Greene and Tioga next week will get the last spot. Greene could also make it certain with a win over Lansing tonight, which is very possible. All 4 playoff teams look very good. I think Unatego could be state-competitive, but sections V and I have VERY good teams.

As for class D, I think you can guess who the favorite is. Those pumpkins are far and away at the head of the pack. For our division, the 2^nd seed will likely go to either Delhi or Deposit. If Delhi wins both games, we are in. If we lose either, Deposit will be in. In the other division, Groton is in control. Candor looks to be the #2, but they don’t seem to be doing great lately, so they could get knocked off. Walton vs. Candor will be ugly. Groton vs. Deposit or Delhi should be competitive. Then Walton is the team to beat for the final. Walton is definitely state competitive, though they will have a very tough road. Their possible 2 first state opponents would be the 2 teams that are ranked above them in the state poll – Onondage from section III and Maple Grove from section VI. Maple Grove has a strong passing game, which could prove interesting.

To rank section IV’s chances at a state title, I’d go with D, then B, then C, then AA, then A.

Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don’t. For picks, I was hotter than a Michael Jackson CD in 1983 (actually they probably didn’t have CD’s back then, eh?). I went a stellar 22-2 (0.917) last week, missing Maine Endwell over Corning West and Edison over Moravia. This helps my season out at 112-32 (0.778), but it is still a long uphill road to 0.800. But one more week like last week and I’m right on the doorstep. Here we go…..Binghamton over Corning West, Norwich over Oneonta (though O-town is better now with Mr. Pidgeon), Owego over END, Spencer over Odessa, Waverly over Dryden, Sidney over Newark Valley, Unatego over T-Burg (‘Tego had better watch it though, T-burg has yet to lose on the field), Greene over Lansing in a nailbiter (not sure, just going with my east loyalty), Tioga over Glen, Groton over Moravia, Candor over Newfield, Bainbridge over Oxford, Ithaca over Southside, Johnson City over Vestal, Corning East over Horseheads, Chenango Valley over Sus Valley, Forks over Windsor (a VERY good game I think), Whitney Point over Southern Springs, EFA over Maine Endwell, Walton over Hancock (though I’m picking Hancock wins 30-28 for most related married couples), Harpursville over UV, Edison over Seton, and Aquinas over UE.